Rohan Sud (Michigan) will be joining us to discuss his current work on a forward looking decision rule for imprecise credences.  Contact Daniel Singer (singerd@phil.upenn.edu) for more information.

Title: A Forward Looking Decision Rule for Imprecise Credences

Abstract: Elga (2010) presents a variant of a Dutch Strategy to supporters of imprecise credences, and argues that any account of decision making that succumbs to this book of bets is unacceptable. Elga concludes that this normative requirement, along with two additional constraints, rules out all imprecise decision theories – theories that select permissible actions for agents reasoning with imprecise credences. Most responses in the literature have rejected one of Elga’s three constraints. In this paper, I will argue that even if we accept all of Elga’s purported rational constraints, there remains a plausible decision rule that is up to Elga’s challenge. Elga’s argument is incomplete – further constraints are required to establish his desired conclusion.